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Interest Rates

Don't get used to money being so cheap for much longer.  The Federal Reserve has held rates artificially low for too long, and with all of the stimulus money being thrown around, it will be much more difficult to maintain those low rates.  Eventually, China and other investors in US dollars will require much higher rates to compensate for the greater risk in holding US treasuries.  Once some other countries get their economies in order (without running their printing presses), the dollar will no longer be the currency of choice for stability and security.  Treasury prices will fall sharply and US interest rate will correspondingly skyrocket.  This will be followed by high inflation and all of the problems associated with inflation.

The reality behind bank lending and the crisis

The new theme in the current crisis/bailout is that we need to get the banks lending again.  Does anybody else see the hypocricy in this?  The crisis was created because banks were lending money to anybody with a pulse, and the proposed solution to the problem is to get lenders to again lend to anybody that can fog a mirror.  ?????   The economy should not return to the environment of cheap credit to everybody, nor should that be the basis of the bailout.  We need to accept that 2002 to 2006 were years of excess and extreme and we should not strive to return there.  The bailout should be designed to create new industries and build up sprouting industries.

Future growth needs to be led by new productivity gains, not by cheap credit.

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